Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -550 LUC +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -11.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -10.5 (+3.5) | 138.6 (-2.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -10.7 (+3.3) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -10.1 (+3.9) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -9.7 (+4.3) | 138.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LUC 78 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Away | 8-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#159) | -8.8 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#115) | -1.62 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#131) | -2.18 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#110) | 0.427 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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