Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +105 JOES -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -3.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -1.6 (+4.6) | 144.8 (-31.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -2.1 (+5.1) | 143.8 (-30.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -2.6 (+5.6) | 143.1 (-30.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -2.3 (+5.3) | 144.7 (-31.7) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LUC 78 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#167) | 6.5 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#142) | 0.66 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#137) | 0.85 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#150) | 0.539 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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