Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LUC +114 JOES -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +21 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -4.6 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -5.1 (-15.9) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.4 (-16.6) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.4 (-15.6) | 141.5 (+7.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -5.5 (-15.5) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LUC 78 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#303) | -1.7 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#323) | 0.32 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#337) | 0.13 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#323) | 0.521 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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