Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -138 MER +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -5.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -2.6 (-15.6) | 136.3 (-13.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -3.1 (-16.1) | 132.9 (-9.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -2.7 (-15.7) | 135.5 (-12.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -2.7 (-15.7) | 136.7 (-13.7) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#245) | -5.3 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#315) | -1.09 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#302) | -1.29 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#322) | 0.435 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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