Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | USA +125 UL -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -0.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.3 (-1.7) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -1.0 (-2.0) | 140.8 (+14.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.0 (-2.0) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -0.8 (-2.2) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#177) | 3.1 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#225) | 1.19 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#224) | 1.64 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#190) | 0.577 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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