Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | USA -900 UL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +23 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | USA -14.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -11.7 (+11.3) | 135.0 (-28.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.2 (+12.8) | 137.3 (-30.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -12.1 (+10.9) | 138.2 (-31.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -11.5 (+11.5) | 136.4 (-29.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UL 88 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-12 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#126) | -9.2 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#156) | -1.19 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#141) | -1.61 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#157) | 0.467 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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