Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UL +230 USA -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -9.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.7 (+2.7) | 131.7 (-11.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.6 (+2.6) | 132.5 (-12.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -7.9 (+3.9) | 132.9 (-12.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -7.0 (+3.0) | 131.9 (-11.9) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UL 88 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#327) | 1.5 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#306) | -0.16 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#308) | 0.02 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#262) | 0.483 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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