Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | USA -485 UL +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +3 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -12.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -9.4 (-12.4) | 131.4 (-16.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -11.1 (-14.1) | 128.7 (-13.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -10.1 (-13.1) | 131.6 (-16.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -10.1 (-13.1) | 130.0 (-15.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UL 88 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#208) | -12.0 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#132) | -2.56 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#146) | -3.27 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#148) | 0.406 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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