Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | UL +150 USA -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -4.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.8 (-0.2) | 126.8 (-5.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.4 (+0.4) | 127.7 (-6.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -7.0 (+2.0) | 130.2 (-9.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.5 (-0.5) | 128.1 (-7.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UL 88 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#327) | -3.2 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#337) | 0.33 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#337) | 0.31 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#340) | 0.494 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.6% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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