Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UL -300 USA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UL -11.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -12.2 (+7.8) | 146.7 (-6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.7 (+9.3) | 149.0 (-9.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -11.6 (+8.4) | 150.2 (-10.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -11.4 (+8.6) | 147.7 (-7.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UL 88 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#129) | -5.5 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#131) | -0.71 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#128) | -0.93 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#108) | 0.461 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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