Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USA +100 UL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -2.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -2.0 (-7.0) | 149.4 (+17.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.4 (-7.6) | 149.0 (+18.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -2.0 (-7.0) | 149.5 (+17.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.6 (-7.4) | 150.7 (+16.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#237) | 1.9 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#177) | 0.16 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#190) | 0.32 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#185) | 0.515 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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