Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -300 WEB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +15 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -9.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -8.1 (+6.9) | 129.0 (-10.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.8 (+7.2) | 127.8 (-8.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.6 (+6.4) | 131.0 (-12.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.3 (+6.7) | 131.1 (-12.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#114) | -2.2 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#143) | -0.53 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#127) | -0.86 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#157) | 0.461 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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