Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WEB +110 MTST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -0.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -0.0 (-9.0) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -0.5 (-9.5) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -0.5 (-9.5) | 137.9 (+13.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -0.2 (-9.2) | 139.2 (+11.8) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MTST 76 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-22 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#249) | -1.2 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#257) | -1.13 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#241) | -0.82 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.429 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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