Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -285 WEB +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -7.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.5 (-3.5) | 146.4 (+32.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.7 (-2.7) | 146.8 (+32.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.7 (-2.7) | 144.6 (+34.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.1 (-3.1) | 145.3 (+33.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MTST 76 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#131) | -1.2 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#152) | -0.69 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | -0.66 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#158) | 0.454 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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