Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -115 MTST -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -1.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -0.2 (+2.8) | 149.3 (+11.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.1 (+3.1) | 145.3 (+15.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -0.2 (+2.8) | 145.6 (+15.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.4 (+3.4) | 147.8 (+13.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MTST 76 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | 2.2 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#237) | -0.05 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#223) | 0.33 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#254) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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