Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MTST +163 WEB -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -3.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -2.7 (+14.7) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -2.0 (+14.0) | 142.2 (-2.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -1.9 (+13.9) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -2.3 (+14.3) | 146.2 (-6.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#252) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#253) | 0.54 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#250) | 0.65 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#267) | 0.538 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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