Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -455 MTST +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | WEB -6.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -5.1 (-14.1) | 141.9 (+31.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -3.5 (-12.5) | 139.5 (+33.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -4.7 (-13.7) | 141.6 (+31.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -4.7 (-13.7) | 142.2 (+30.8) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MTST 76 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#136) | -4.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#131) | -0.61 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#136) | -0.68 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#109) | 0.462 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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