Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -380 WEB +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -9.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.9 (+0.1) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.7 (+0.3) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.8 (+0.2) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.9 (+0.1) | 140.2 (-0.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MTST 76 – 64 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#186) | -8.1 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#248) | -1.61 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#223) | -1.96 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#262) | 0.427 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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