Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -188 CCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +34 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -3.9 (+30.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.7 (+32.3) | 132.1 (+33.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.1 (+31.9) | 134.5 (+31.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.5 (+32.5) | 130.0 (+36.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -2.0 (+32.0) | 131.1 (+34.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | CCU 76 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GAST 89 – 71 CCU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | CCU 80 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | GAST 79 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GAST 72 – 71 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#253) | -4.6 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#277) | 0.07 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#268) | -0.51 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#299) | 0.525 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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