Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -8.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.4 (-7.4) | 131.3 (-6.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -6.8 (-7.8) | 131.9 (-6.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -6.2 (-7.2) | 131.7 (-6.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.8 (-7.8) | 133.0 (-8.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | VCU 70 – 62 DAY |
| Mar 7, 2026 | VCU 68 – 62 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VCU 99 – 73 DAY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DAY 79 – 76 VCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VCU 73 – 68 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#62) | 3.8 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#67) | 0.95 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#64) | 0.92 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#68) | 0.552 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 34.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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