Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -105 VCU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -2.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -2.0 (-3.0) | 138.4 (+2.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -1.9 (-3.1) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -1.1 (-3.9) | 139.5 (+1.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -0.8 (-4.2) | 140.3 (+0.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | VCU 70 – 62 DAY |
| Mar 7, 2026 | VCU 68 – 62 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VCU 99 – 73 DAY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DAY 79 – 76 VCU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | DAY 91 – 86 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#81) | 12.9 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#72) | 1.53 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#69) | 2.24 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#59) | 0.575 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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