Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -400 VCU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -9.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+42.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -8.4 (-3.4) | 138.8 (+38.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -9.2 (-4.2) | 138.1 (+38.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -9.1 (-4.1) | 140.0 (+37.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -9.6 (-4.6) | 139.9 (+37.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | VCU 70 – 62 DAY |
| Mar 7, 2026 | VCU 68 – 62 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VCU 99 – 73 DAY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DAY 79 – 76 VCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VCU 73 – 68 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 24-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#35) | 6.7 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#21) | 1.19 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#23) | 1.42 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#5) | 0.561 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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