Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -125 VCU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +6 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -1.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -0.8 (-6.8) | 146.9 (-16.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -0.6 (-6.6) | 148.0 (-18.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.4 (-7.4) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.1 (-7.1) | 146.2 (-16.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | VCU 70 – 62 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VCU 99 – 73 DAY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DAY 79 – 76 VCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VCU 73 – 68 DAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | DAY 91 – 86 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#82) | 11.7 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#66) | 1.98 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#63) | 2.59 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#46) | 0.592 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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