Cause now I wanna be your dog. "I Wanna Be Your Dog" - Iggy and the Stooges
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–17 on winners spread MAE 9.1 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Michigan @ Iowa +7.8 157.8 76% 84–93 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville -1.9 143.6 43% 46–54 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State -4.6 129.2 34% 65–53 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +10.2 138.8 82% 67–66 ✗
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -2.4 166.2 41% 84–79 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +2.6 143.8 59% 65–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -14.3 136.4 10% 70–55 ✓
Drexel @ Stony Brook -5.7 118.1 30% 66–67 ✗
North Alabama @ Liberty +19.6 139.7 96% 54–72 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +15.6 162.1 92% 92–91 ✗
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State +3.0 122.4 61% 68–81 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville State +0.6 145.3 52% 63–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky -3.6 143.6 37% 76–97 ✗
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -7.1 147.6 26% 86–73 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State -2.8 117.9 40% 61–58 ✓
James Madison @ South Alabama -4.2 143.3 35% 62–63 ✗
St. Thomas @ Kansas City +1.3 137.2 55% 60–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +18.0 155.6 95% 63–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +6.4 141.1 72% 63–69 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -8.1 143.8 23% 99–67 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +7.8 131.0 76% 75–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +10.1 144.0 82% 71–94 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian -6.2 153.6 29% 59–68 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10.5 152.8 83% 85–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +5.2 136.7 68% 62–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois -9.0 133.6 21% 80–62 ✓
Nicholls @ Lamar -8.8 146.5 21% 66–69 ✗
Colorado @ USC +1.8 143.7 57% 61–68 ✓
Arizona State @ Oregon +3.8 132.1 63% 90–73 ✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State +10.6 138.6 83% 75–89 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Incarnate Word +3.7 146.1 63% 85–79 ✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +13.7 126.3 89% 48–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Southern Utah -4.1 149.5 35% 74–86 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Tech +4.4 149.6 66% 85–72 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Mary's +15.2 129.5 92% 62–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ Marshall +4.6 144.5 66% 67–89 ✓
North Dakota State @ Denver +4.3 148.3 65% 90–70 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +4.8 156.8 67% 77–66 ✗
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana +11.2 162.1 85% 67–74 ✓
Weber State @ Montana +6.5 132.7 72% 59–57 ✗
Idaho State @ Montana State +9.9 131.4 82% 68–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +2.0 135.6 57% 87–65 ✗
Gonzaga @ BYU -2.5 152.0 41% 75–74 ✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U +4.9 146.1 67% 66–69 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego +0.7 164.9 52% 89–92 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +10.0 138.4 82% 58–77 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State +9.2 152.5 80% 64–72 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +9.6 157.5 81% 74–75 ✓
Utah @ UCLA +11.9 134.1 86% 49–68 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon State -13.4 145.1 11% 86–74 ✓
Stanford @ Washington +3.6 136.0 63% 69–86 ✓
San Francisco @ Portland +0.9 150.9 53% 87–92 ✓
Yale @ Cornell +0.4 146.4 51% 82–94 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio -3.5 138.8 38% 70–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.