Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -700 IDST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -8.4 (+4.6) | 137.5 (+11.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -11.0 (+2.0) | 135.6 (+13.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.4 (+5.6) | 136.8 (+12.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.4 (+4.6) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#119) | -2.8 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#148) | -1.39 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#129) | -1.01 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#148) | 0.409 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.