Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +100 MTST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +20 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -0.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.3 (-20.3) | 138.8 (+1.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.2 (-20.2) | 137.2 (+2.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.2 (-20.2) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.2 (-20.2) | 140.9 (-0.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2024 | MTST 77 – 70 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | -1.1 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#243) | -0.72 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#226) | -0.62 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#268) | 0.472 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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