Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -213 IDST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -5.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.3 (+2.7) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.9 (+1.1) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.9 (+3.1) | 136.9 (+10.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.3 (+2.7) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#256) | -6.8 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#240) | -1.46 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#238) | -1.60 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#265) | 0.400 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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