Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -238 IDST +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.8 (+6.2) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.1 (+7.9) | 143.4 (-7.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.2 (+5.8) | 143.9 (-7.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.7 (+6.3) | 142.9 (-6.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2024 | MTST 77 – 70 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#158) | -0.42 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#147) | -0.57 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#173) | 0.465 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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