Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -110 MTST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -3.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -1.9 (+1.1) | 136.3 (+0.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.7 (+1.3) | 135.4 (+1.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -2.0 (+1.0) | 137.5 (-0.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -2.0 (+1.0) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 23, 2024 | MTST 77 – 70 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#191) | -1.3 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#294) | -1.02 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#280) | -0.72 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#304) | 0.440 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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