Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -175 IDST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -4.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.1 (+1.9) | 139.3 (+3.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.0 (+3.0) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.1 (+1.9) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.9 (+2.1) | 140.1 (+2.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2024 | MTST 77 – 70 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#187) | -2.6 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#244) | -0.97 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#220) | -0.99 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#255) | 0.439 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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