Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +100 MTST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.9 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.0 (+17.0) | 142.8 (+24.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.0 (+16.0) | 141.0 (+26.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.6 (+16.6) | 140.3 (+26.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.3 (+17.3) | 142.4 (+24.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2024 | MTST 77 – 70 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#226) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#264) | -0.15 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#249) | 0.22 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#278) | 0.498 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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