Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -5.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -4.3 (+5.3) | 141.0 (-16.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -4.0 (+5.0) | 141.7 (-16.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -4.2 (+5.2) | 143.0 (-18.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -3.3 (+4.3) | 142.2 (-17.2) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USA 90 – 83 JMU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | USA 77 – 49 JMU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JMU 89 – 55 USA |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USA 75 – 66 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#188) | 8.5 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#252) | 0.14 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#234) | 0.67 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#208) | 0.491 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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