Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -1000 USA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +34 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -16.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -16.2 (+17.8) | 157.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -13.5 (+20.5) | 156.0 (-12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -14.3 (+19.7) | 155.9 (-11.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -15.8 (+18.2) | 154.0 (-10.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USA 90 – 83 JMU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | USA 77 – 49 JMU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USA 75 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USA 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#60) | -3.9 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#24) | -0.50 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#34) | -0.68 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#94) | 0.452 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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