Betting Lines
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -125 USA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -2.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.9 (-11.9) | 143.7 (-2.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -3.1 (-12.1) | 141.8 (-0.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.7 (-11.7) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -2.7 (-11.7) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USA 90 – 83 JMU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | USA 77 – 49 JMU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JMU 89 – 55 USA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USA 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#86) | 4.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#102) | 0.18 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#95) | 0.46 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#99) | 0.510 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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