Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USA -115 JMU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +28 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.2 (+26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.3 (+26.7) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.2 (+28.2) | 134.0 (-8.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.8 (+26.2) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.5 (+26.5) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | USA 90 – 83 JMU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JMU 89 – 55 USA |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USA 75 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USA 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#169) | 2.6 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#198) | 0.02 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | 0.29 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#225) | 0.512 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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