Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -192 USA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -2.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -0.7 (-7.7) | 139.1 (+33.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -1.3 (-8.3) | 139.6 (+33.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -0.8 (-7.8) | 137.2 (+35.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -0.9 (-7.9) | 138.2 (+34.8) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | USA 77 – 49 JMU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JMU 89 – 55 USA |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USA 75 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USA 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#243) | -3.8 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#221) | 0.10 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#233) | -0.03 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#200) | 0.499 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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