Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +100 LIP +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +22 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -1.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -0.9 (-22.9) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.2 (-22.2) | 137.6 (+14.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -1.3 (-23.3) | 139.5 (+12.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.7 (-22.7) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#252) | -2.3 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#259) | -0.55 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#254) | -0.71 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#218) | 0.461 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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