Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +3 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | USD -0.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -1.4 (+1.6) | 158.8 (+22.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -2.3 (+0.7) | 158.9 (+22.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -1.2 (+1.8) | 158.2 (+22.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -1.2 (+1.8) | 157.0 (+24.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 2-14 |
| Home | 8-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 81.8 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#207) | 1.5 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#239) | -0.36 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#204) | -0.06 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#226) | 0.497 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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