Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +300 UL -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -6.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -6.6 (-6.4) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.0 (-6.0) | 142.5 (+16.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -6.0 (-7.0) | 145.0 (+14.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.6 (-7.4) | 145.6 (+13.4) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#308) | 2.7 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#275) | 1.10 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#256) | 1.60 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#280) | 0.579 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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