Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -600 UTA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +32 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -14.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -10.4 (+21.6) | 131.0 (-3.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.9 (+20.1) | 131.6 (-3.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -11.1 (+20.9) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.2 (+20.8) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | GCU 98 – 75 UTA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | GCU 85 – 71 UTA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GCU 82 – 75 UTA |
| Mar 17, 2024 | GCU 89 – 74 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#97) | -5.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#98) | -1.37 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#98) | -1.67 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#84) | 0.453 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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