Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | ORST +900 ARIZ -1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -14.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -13.1 (+1.1) | 145.5 (+14.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -13.2 (+1.2) | 142.3 (+17.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -12.6 (+0.6) | 143.4 (+16.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -12.8 (+0.8) | 145.9 (+14.1) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | ORST 83 – 80 ARIZ |
| Feb 5, 2023 | ARIZ 84 – 52 ORST |
| Feb 18, 2022 | ARIZ 83 – 69 ORST |
| Dec 5, 2021 | ARIZ 90 – 65 ORST |
| Feb 12, 2021 | ARIZ 70 – 61 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.5 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#221) | 16.0 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#205) | 2.81 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#224) | 3.20 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#242) | 0.632 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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