Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -10000 ORST +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +32 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -21.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -19.5 (+12.5) | 142.4 (-6.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -16.8 (+15.2) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -17.6 (+14.4) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -17.0 (+15.0) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | ORST 83 – 80 ARIZ |
| Jan 13, 2023 | ARIZ 86 – 74 ORST |
| Feb 18, 2022 | ARIZ 83 – 69 ORST |
| Dec 5, 2021 | ARIZ 90 – 65 ORST |
| Feb 12, 2021 | ARIZ 70 – 61 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 60.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#8) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#8) | -0.41 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#17) | -0.55 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#5) | 0.457 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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