Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -700 ORST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -12.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -9.6 (-0.6) | 135.9 (-4.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -11.1 (-2.1) | 140.5 (-9.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -11.2 (-2.2) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -11.1 (-2.1) | 141.3 (-10.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | ORST 83 – 80 ARIZ |
| Feb 5, 2023 | ARIZ 84 – 52 ORST |
| Jan 13, 2023 | ARIZ 86 – 74 ORST |
| Feb 18, 2022 | ARIZ 83 – 69 ORST |
| Dec 5, 2021 | ARIZ 90 – 65 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#37) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#65) | 0.69 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#64) | 1.08 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#68) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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