Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.0 Push |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -14.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.9 (+1.1) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -15.2 (-1.2) | 130.1 (+7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.5 (+1.5) | 131.6 (+6.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.8 (+1.2) | 132.4 (+5.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#10) | 4.3 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#42) | 0.95 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#35) | 1.23 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#36) | 0.552 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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