Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -2500 LMU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -16.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.6 (-8.6) | 131.7 (+3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.8 (-8.8) | 130.5 (+4.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -13.3 (-8.3) | 131.4 (+3.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -14.1 (-9.1) | 130.6 (+4.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
| Feb 10, 2023 | LMU 78 – 74 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 9-0 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#24) | 0.6 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#68) | -0.34 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#64) | -0.38 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#71) | 0.466 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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