Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LMU +500 SMC -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +3 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -13.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.1 (+8.1) | 133.4 (-20.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.5 (+10.5) | 132.8 (-19.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.1 (+8.1) | 133.4 (-20.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -10.9 (+7.9) | 133.7 (-20.7) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
| Feb 10, 2023 | LMU 78 – 74 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 61.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#167) | 16.0 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#142) | 2.82 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#147) | 3.77 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.622 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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