Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +370 SMC -485 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -6.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.4 (-1.6) | 136.1 (+14.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.6 (-0.4) | 137.9 (+13.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.9 (-1.1) | 134.8 (+16.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.0 (-1.0) | 136.0 (+15.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
| Feb 10, 2023 | LMU 78 – 74 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-8 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#127) | 13.3 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#133) | 2.88 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#120) | 4.30 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#176) | 0.674 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 35.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.