Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +188 SMC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -8.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -6.2 (+10.2) | 133.0 (+19.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -7.2 (+11.2) | 130.8 (+21.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -6.8 (+10.8) | 133.1 (+18.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -6.3 (+10.3) | 133.0 (+19.0) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#99) | 16.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#90) | 2.57 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#100) | 3.37 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#81) | 0.626 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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