Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +400 SMC -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -6.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -7.0 (+3.0) | 129.9 (+2.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -7.0 (+3.0) | 129.7 (+2.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.1 (+3.1) | 130.8 (+1.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.5 (+4.5) | 130.4 (+1.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Feb 10, 2023 | LMU 78 – 74 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-1 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-7 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#242) | 1.04 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#242) | 1.49 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#264) | 0.582 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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