Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -1400 LMU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -13.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.9 (+11.1) | 134.9 (+2.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -15.8 (+9.2) | 134.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.8 (+12.2) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.7 (+12.3) | 135.3 (+1.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
| Feb 10, 2023 | LMU 78 – 74 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-1 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#58) | 0.2 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#49) | 0.64 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#43) | 0.89 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#46) | 0.534 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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